000			02304 a2200241 4500
999			_c153384 _d153384
003			LDD
005			20200118153321.0
008			200118b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9781849048781
040			_cIGNOU Library
082			_223 _a327.73051 C669I
100			_aCoker, Christopher _eauthor _910882
245			_aThe improbable war : _bChina, the United States and the continuing logic of great power conflict / _cChristopher Coker
246			_aChina, the United States and the continuing logic of great power conflict
260			_aNew York ; _a Oxford : _bOxford University Press, _c2017
300			_aix, 217 pages ; _c 23 cm
505			_aHistorical Analogies and the Logic of History -- Dominant Conflicts and the Logic of Great Power Conflict -- Strategic Narratives and the Logic of Strategy -- War (and its protean Logic) -- Conclusion.
520			_aThe Improbable War explains why conflict between the USA and China cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was considered unlikely, yet it happened. We learn only from history, and popular though the First World War analogy is, the lessons we draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to over-estimate human rationality. All major conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules of the international system. In China and the US the world confronts two 'exceptional' powers whose values differ markedly, with China bidding to challenge the current order. The 'Thucydidean Trap' - when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new one - may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a coherent strategy, which neither of them has. History also reveals that war evolves continually. The next global conflict is likely to be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the United States and China may seem improbable, but it is all too possible, which is why we need to discuss it now.
650			_aDiplomatic relations. _910883
651			_aUnited States _xForeign relations _zChina. _910884
651			_aChina _xForeign relations _zUnited States. _910885
942			_2ddc _cBK